Iraq: six months onThe London Independent today carries a running tally: A survey of the good, the bad, and the uncertain:
Casualties - The total of Allied soldiers killed since Saddam Hussein was deposed on April 9 is 230. The death toll includes 207 American servicemen and 30 Britons. During September, civilian deaths in Baghdad totalled 518. Under Saddam, deaths from gun violence in Baghdad averaged 6 per month. According to the central morgue in Baghdad, violent deaths reached 872 in August. The highest monthly toll in the previous year was 237 deaths, with just 21 from gunfire.
Oil & Fuel - There are only 300 petrol outlets for Iraq's 25 million people. Petrol is officially available, but most rely on the black merket. Refineries are only producing 1.25m barrels of crude a day, compared with 2.4m barrels a day, a month before the war. The estimated cost of restoring production to the pre-1991 level of 3.5m barrels a day is $6.6bn. Iraq exports 70,000 barrels a day compared with 1.8m a day before the war.
Food - Three out of five Iraqis depend on food aid. Before the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the imposition of UN sanctions, Iraq was one of the best fed countries in the Middle East. Then, it imported two thirds of its needs.
Water - Safe drinking water is now available to 60% of the population, compared with 85% before the war. The amount proposed by the Coalition Provisional Authority to spend on a new water system is $2.8bn to give 90% of the population a supply of safe drinking water.
Media - The number of newspapers and magazines being published since Saddam's fall in 189. This compares with 39 under Saddam, all of which were tightly controlled and censored.
Reconstruction - The total cost of rebuilding Iraq is estimated at $100bn, with the US to pay $20.3bn. This is far higher than planned by Washington and $80bn must be raised from donors such as Japan, the EU and Arab states. It includes $2.1bn for policing, $2.1bn for armed forces, $919m for justice, $4.6bn for water and sanitation, $850m for health care, $470m for housing and $835m for transport and telecoms.
Power - Electricity has been restored to pre-war levels by the US power company Bechtel at the cost of £80m. It is hoped that 75% of Iraqis will have access by 2005. The total cost of electricity development in Iraq is £2.35bn.
Education - Iraq has 15,000 schools and 1.5m secondary school pupils. The United States says 7,000 schools needed repair before the war. So far, 175 have been repaired.
Governance - Iraq is being ruled by US pro-consul Paul Bremer as head of the Coalition Provisional Authority. There are now 70 political parties, compared with the one-party state under Saddam. The US-appointed, 25-strong Iraq Governing Council is sidelined. Despite calls for a rapid handover, the US says it will take six months to draw up the constitution leading to elections and an Iraqi government next year.Child Deaths - Infant mortality has nearly doubled since the war. An independent survey last month showed 103 child deaths per 1,000 live births compared with 57 deaths per 1,000 in 2002.
Opinion - Most Iraqis approve of the removal of Saddam Hussein. Last month, Gallup polled the residents of Baghdad and found that 62% thought the suffering they had endured during the military assault and after was worth it to live in a post-Saddam era; 67% thought their lives would be better five years from now. I notice how they jump back and forwards between comparing current situations to pre-Gulf War 1 and pre-Gulf War 2 conditions, depending on which makes better copy.
On balance, Iraq is almost exactly where we would expect to see a country that had been recently liberated by force of arms. Prior to the war, I seem to remember agreeing that the postwar reconstruction effort would have to be substantial and swift, but I don't accept that we ever believed it would be instantaneous. I'm not satisfied that we're as far along as we could be, but all things considered, we're not doing badly.
Consider the following timeline:
May 7-9, 1945: Germany surrenders;
June 5, 1945: Allies assume control of Germany
March, 1948: Marshall plan begins aid for reconstruction of Germany
August 14, 1949: election of first German Bundestag
September 12, 1949: election of first German Chancellor.
The most important failure of the Allies in Iraq was the failure to concurrently implement the Roadmap for a Palestinian state. Had we achieved that, I think we would be much closer to the goal of a stable middle east. The next steps, then, are clearly to complete the poltiical and infrastructural reconstruction of Iraq, to implement the Roadmap, and to engage Iran in a diplomatic dialogue, possibly through a relatively neutral third party such as Germany or Australia.
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